Predictive policing is a policing method based on supposed forecasts or predictions of when, where, and/or by whom crime will occur.
Predictive policing can take many forms and can be formal or informal. It may involve risk assessments of people and places, supposedly based on information about the subject or target, or may detail a plan for patrolling or assignment of police resources based on reports of crime from previous years.
While police captains, consultants, and those who study policing may disagree on what is regarded as “predictive policing,” it is widely described as forecasting crime or criminal behavior based on data or knowledge obtained by police.
Predictive policing may also be referred to as “proactive policing,” as it positions police as “getting ahead of” or “preventing crime before it happens.” Police claim this is done by gathering and analyzing data, with the purpose of mapping trends to be able to forecast or “predict” future events or behaviors. Hot-spot policing, crime mapping, intelligence-led policing, risk assessments, and focused deterrence are all forms of predictive policing, and this is a non-exhaustive list.
While the term “predictive policing” was only coined fairly recently, the concept and fundamental tactics are not new. For many years, police have claimed that their experience and knowledge of crime trends and local communities helped them “know” where to patrol or station local police resources, in supposed “anticipation” of where crime was going to happen; an implicit version of predictive policing that became more formalized after the introduction and popularization of Compstat in 1994 and in the decades that followed, as well as the surge in intelligence-led policing following the events of 9/11.
At LAPD, police use historic reports of crime to “predict” where crime “will happen” in the future - then they send police on patrols and missions with the goal of making arrests and “preventing crime.” Source: a hotspot mission map from 2016 showing missions in Avalon Gardens and Watts.